A new report from the head of research at CoinShares
A new report from the head of research at CoinShares has found that approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could attract $14.4 billion of inflows in its first year and propel the bitcoin price to $141,000 by the end of 2025.
Perspective: The researcher posited that 10% of the estimated $14.4 trillion addressable assets in the U.S. would invest in a spot bitcoin ETF, with an average allocation of 1%. And as the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, is inching closer to such an approval, the catalyst for these inflows appears imminent.
“In the grand scheme of things, when you look at BlackRock, which has $10 trillion of assets, $14.4 billion is like pocket change to them,” explained George Tung in the video above. “$14.4 billion of inflow would drive bitcoin’s price up to $141,000. So, think about how likely that is and how soon that could come. That’s like, around the corner.”
More details: In the new report, CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill also estimated that as much as $31.345 billion could flow into bitcoin as a result of spot ETF approval, which would eventually push the bitcoin price to $265,437 — a more than 600% increase from its current price range of $36,800.
“Looking at his model, all we need is $31.3 billion and that would put us at $265,000 per bitcoin,” Tung said. “Really, again, if you take into context how much money, we’re talking about trillions, upon trillions, upon trillions out there, sitting in other assets and sitting in cash. If just a small proportion of that came in … we would be at $265,000 in no time.”
Key takeaways: Based on estimates like CoinShares’ latest, which outline how much institutional capital there is waiting for a friendlier way to obtain bitcoin exposure, it’s clear why there’s so much enthusiasm around a potential spot ETF approval.
Why is Bitcoin price up today?
“That is the impact of an ETF, because there are so many sitting on the sidelines,” Tung said. “(There are) fund managers and pension funds and retirement funds that think buying physical bitcoin is too risky. But, if they can put their money into a spot ETF, that’s a different story.”
Tung referenced a recent survey conducted by Coinbase that further demonstrated investors interest in allocating more capital toward crypto soon, finding that 64% of polled investors expect to increase their positions in the next three years.
“Once bitcoin breaks above ($50,000), goes to 60, goes to 70, this 64% is going to like, 90%,” Tung said. “No one wants to miss out on gains. FOMO will be real, it will be spread for everyone — not just retail investors, but for the whales and the institutions alike. Everyone is going to feel that FOMO once bitcoin starts really going upwards.”
The context: Researchers and market analysts have been highlighting the positive price impacts of a spot bitcoin ETF from BlackRock for weeks. A former director with the firm has said it would drive $200 billion to bitcoin, while SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci has predicted it will push the bitcoin price to $330,000.
