June 18 was another doom day for Bitcoin and traditional markets where they faced downward pressure comments from the United States Federal Reserve concerning the possibility of increasing interest rates earlier than expected. The comments have resulted in an increase in the price of the U.S. dollar at the expense of risk assets and treasury notes.
However, there have been mounting concerns about another BTC downturn for weeks now, with a lot of the discussion focusing on the approaching death-cross and its meaning for Bitcoin’s future. Bitcoin was pulled below the crucial price of $36,000 during today’s selling, leading to a new forecast of $32,500 as the next stop before BTC goes back to the swing low at $30,000.
Some of the news that have traders feeling apprehensive about the current dip in Bitcoin price include the technical factors shared by TradeView and negative headlines in the news like the authorities shutting down cryptocurrency miners in China and the most recent rug pull on the Iron Finance protocol that resulted in the loss of money by cryptocurrency proponent and billionaire investor Mark Cuban. Due to these concerns, the crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 25, registering extreme fear and continuing the trend of the last month.
Exchanges register increased inflows before the sell-off
According to data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analysis firm, BTC netflows to exchanges offered some warning to observant traders before the week’s drop from $41,000 to $36,000. On June 15, there was a spike in BTC inflows to exchanges when its price hit $41,300 but then proceeded to drop by 15% over the next three days.
An observant from Twitter has pointed out that whale activities on the crypto exchange, Gemini, has a clear correlation with some of the larger sell-offs experienced by the crypto market in 2021.
Looking back, we can see the largest corrections where caused by Gemini whales.
It’s safe to make the assumption that a positive $BTC netflow on Gemini could indicate a local top.
— Vish – @KryptoniteTrading (@KryptoniteTrade) June 16, 2021
The past couple of days has however experienced a balancing out of Bitcoin netflow to exchanges with inflows slightly outpacing outflows. Market participants are now waiting to see the direction the price moves to next as the dreaded death cross nears.
A continued accumulation of smart money
The total supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has increased after reaching a low in the middle of May, even as investor fears keep rising and certain traders who bought BTC between the highs in March and May are selling at a loss. Crypto Twitter analyst, William Clemente Ill, stated that recent on-chain data shows that BTC has been oversold and is now sitting on historically important inflection points for major on-chain indicators.
– BTC is oversold in accordance with on-chain
– BTC now sits on historically important inflection points for major on-chain indicators
– LTHs continue to scoop up discounted BTC, offsetting STH selling
– Accumulation growing stronger
– Still a lack of new whales https://t.co/wrUjUNRhNb
— William Clemente III (@WClementeIII) June 18, 2021
He therefore suggests that long-term holders should continue to scoop up discounted BTC, a tactic that has enabled offset selling by short-term holders. He also pointed to the fact that accumulation is growing stronger.
According to Rekt Capital, the short-term future for BTC currently remains risky as previous instances of a death-cross have been followed by a retracement similar to the retrace that came before the crossover.
Here's what I found really interesting when analysing the #BTC Death Cross across cycles:
"Once #BTC performs a Death Cross, there tends to be a similar retrace to the retrace that preceded the crossover"
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 18, 2021
Long-term data however hints at a more optimistic future since whale wallets and long-term holders keep increasing their BTC balances.